Quinnipiac University, a leader in election polling, released the following press release on Tuesday regarding Linda McMahon’s senate race. With 7 weeks until Election Day, Linda McMahon is now within 6 points of her Democratic challenger, with 3% undecided and 11% saying they could switch their vote.
Blumenthal Up Just 6 Points In Connecticut Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Much McMahon Support Is Anti-Blumenthal
(September 14, 2010) Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, leads Republican former wrestling executive Linda McMahon 51 – 45 percent among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Another 3 percent are undecided and 11 percent of those who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day. This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University’s first general election likely voter survey in Connecticut in this election cycle and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
In today’s survey, conducted by telephone with live interviewers, Blumenthal leads 87 – 10 percent among Democrats and gets 47 percent of independent voters to McMahon’s 46 percent. McMahon leads 91 – 9 percent among Republicans. Women back Blumenthal 56 – 41 percent, while men split 47 – 48 percent.
Among those backing McMahon, 42 percent say their vote is mainly against Blumenthal, while 53 percent say they mainly are pro-McMahon. Blumenthal backers are 22 percent anti- McMahon and 73 percent pro-Blumenthal.
“This is now a 6 point race among likely voters. With seven weeks to go and lots of money to be spent, anything can happen,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, PhD.
“For Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, an elected official with a 70 percent approval rating, this race is surprisingly close. It is not that voters are wild about McMahon; her favorability rating is tepid. And many of her supporters are more anti-Blumenthal.”
“The question is whether Linda McMahon can ride the anti-establishment, anti-Democratic wave to victory in blue Connecticut, a state that hasn’t voted for a Republican for Senator since Lowell Weicker in 1982,” Dr. Schwartz added.
“President Barack Obama appears to be a drag on Blumenthal, even in Connecticut, where the President’s job approval rating is a negative 45 – 52 percent.
“McMahon would be Connecticut’s first female Senator. But it is Blumenthal’s advantage among women that is making the difference in the race. While men have a mixed opinion of both candidates, women are divided on McMahon but love Blumenthal by a more than 2-1 margin. It may be because women are less likely than men to be turned off by Blumenthal’s Vietnam misstatements, and more likely to be turned off by McMahon’s wrestling background.”
Only 45 percent of Connecticut likely voters say Blumenthal can bring needed change to Washington, with 48 percent saying he can’t bring change. But McMahon gets exactly the same numbers. Blumenthal leads McMahon on most other measures in the survey, as voters say:
* 72 – 25 percent that Blumenthal has the right experience to be a U.S Senator;
* 56 – 39 percent that McMahon does not have the right experience;
* 57 – 36 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
* 58 – 29 percent that she is honest and trustworthy;
* 55 – 38 percent that Blumenthal shares their values;
* 49 – 42 percent that McMahon shares their values.
Connecticut voters say 37 – 1 percent that Blumenthal’s statements about his Vietnam War service make them less likely to vote for him, as 60 percent say they don’t make a difference.
McMahon’s experience as CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment leaves voters 33 – 20 percent less likely to vote for her, while 47 percent say it doesn’t make a difference.
By a 55 – 39 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Blumenthal, compared to a 45 – 41 percent favorability for McMahon.
The economy and jobs are the main issues in deciding how they will vote, 55 percent of voters say, followed by 11 percent who list health care, 10 percent who cite the federal deficit and 6 percent who say education. Only 4 percent list illegal immigration and 2 percent say Afghanistan.
From September 8 – 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 875 Connecticut likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
For more details on the polling results, visit the Qunnipiac University website.